Target product profiles: leprosy diagnostics.

The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to reduce new leprosy cases by 70% by 2030, necessitating advancements in leprosy diagnostics. Here we discuss the development of two WHO's target product profiles for such diagnostics. These profiles define criteria for product use, design, performance, configuration and distribution, with a focus on accessibility and affordability. The first target product profile outlines requirements for tests to confirm diagnosis of leprosy in individuals with clinical signs and symptoms, to guide multidrug treatment initiation. The second target product profile outlines requirements for tests to detect Mycobacterium leprae or M. lepromatosis infection among asymptomatic contacts of leprosy patients, aiding prophylactic interventions and prevention. Statistical modelling was used to assess sensitivity and specificity requirements for these diagnostic tests. The paper highlights challenges in achieving high specificity, given the varying endemicity of M. leprae, and identifying target analytes with robust performance across leprosy phenotypes. We conclude that diagnostics with appropriate product design and performance characteristics are crucial for early detection and preventive intervention, advocating for the transition from leprosy management to prevention.

L'Organisation mondiale de la Santé (OMS) vise à réduire le nombre de nouveaux cas de lèpre de 70% d'ici 2030, ce qui nécessite un meilleur diagnostic de la maladie. Dans le présent document, nous évoquons le développement de deux profils de produit cible établis par l'OMS à cette fin. Ces profils définissent des critères en matière d'utilisation, de conception, de performances, de configuration et de distribution du produit, en accordant une attention particulière à l'accessibilité et à l'abordabilité. Le premier profil de produit cible décrit les exigences pour les tests servant à confirmer le diagnostic de la lèpre chez les individus qui présentent des signes cliniques et des symptômes, afin d'orienter l'instauration d'un traitement à base de plusieurs médicaments. Le second profil de produit cible décrit les exigences pour les tests servant à détecter une infection à Mycobacterium leprae ou M. lepromatosis parmi les contacts asymptomatiques de patients lépreux, ce qui contribue à l'adoption de mesures prophylactiques et à la prévention. Nous avons eu recours à une modélisation statistique pour évaluer les exigences de sensibilité et de spécificité de ces tests diagnostiques. Cet article met en évidence les obstacles à l'atteinte d'un niveau élevé de spécificité en raison de l'endémicité variable de M. leprae, et à l'identification d'analytes cibles offrant de bons résultats chez les phénotypes lépreux. Nous concluons qu'un diagnostic reposant sur des caractéristiques de performance et de conception appropriées est essentiel pour détecter rapidement la maladie et intervenir en amont, et nous plaidons pour une prévention plutôt qu'une gestion de la lèpre.

La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) pretende reducir los nuevos casos de lepra en un 70% para 2030, lo que requiere avances en el diagnóstico de la lepra. Aquí se analiza el desarrollo de dos perfiles de productos objetivo de la OMS para este tipo de diagnósticos. Estos perfiles definen los criterios de uso, diseño, rendimiento, configuración y distribución de los productos, centrándose en su accesibilidad y asequibilidad. El primer perfil de producto objetivo describe los requisitos de las pruebas para confirmar el diagnóstico de la lepra en personas con signos y síntomas clínicos, con el fin de orientar el inicio del tratamiento con múltiples fármacos. El segundo perfil de producto objetivo describe los requisitos de las pruebas para detectar la infección por Mycobacterium leprae o M. lepromatosis entre los contactos asintomáticos de los pacientes con lepra, para facilitar las intervenciones profilácticas y la prevención. Se utilizaron modelos estadísticos para evaluar los requisitos de sensibilidad y especificidad de estas pruebas diagnósticas. El artículo destaca las dificultades para lograr una alta especificidad, dada la diferente endemicidad de M. leprae, y para identificar analitos diana con un rendimiento sólido en todos los fenotipos de lepra. Concluimos que los diagnósticos con un diseño de producto y unas características de rendimiento adecuados son fundamentales para la detección precoz y la intervención preventiva, lo que favorece la transición del manejo de la lepra a la prevención.

Intra-urban differences underlying leprosy spatial distribution in central Brazil: geospatial techniques as potential tools for surveillance.

This ecological study identified an aggregation of urban neighbourhoods spatial patterns in the cumulative new case detection rate (NCDR) of leprosy in the municipality of Rondonópolis, central Brazil, as well as intra-urban socioeconomic differences underlying this distribution. Scan statistics of all leprosy cases reported in the area from 2011 to 2017 were used to investigate spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of the disease at the neighbourhood level. The associations between the log of the smoothed NCDR and demographic, socioeconomic, and structural characteristics were explored by comparing multivariate models based on ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, spatial lag, spatial error, and geographically weighted regression (GWR). Leprosy cases were observed in 84.1% of the neighbourhoods of Rondonópolis, where 848 new cases of leprosy were reported corresponding to a cumulative NCDR of 57.9 cases/100,000 inhabitants. Spatial and spatiotemporal high-risk clusters were identified in western and northern neighbourhoods, whereas central and southern areas comprised low-risk areas. The GWR model was selected as the most appropriate modelling strategy (adjusted R²: 0.305; AIC: 242.85). By mapping the GWR coefficients, we identified that low literacy rate and low mean monthly nominal income per household were associated with a high NCDR of leprosy, especially in the neighbourhoods located within high-risk areas. In conclusion, leprosy presented a heterogeneous and peripheral spatial distribution at the neighbourhood level, which seems to have been shaped by intra-urban differences related to deprivation and poor living conditions. This information should be considered by decision-makers while implementing surveillance measures aimed at leprosy control.

Identifying clusters of leprosy patients in India: A comparison of methods.

BACKGROUND: Preventive interventions with post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are needed in leprosy high-endemic areas to interrupt the transmission of Mycobacterium leprae. Program managers intend to use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to target preventive interventions considering efficient use of public health resources. Statistical GIS analyses are commonly used to identify clusters of disease without accounting for the local context. Therefore, we propose a contextualized spatial approach that includes expert consultation to identify clusters and compare it with a standard statistical approach. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We included all leprosy patients registered from 2014 to 2020 at the Health Centers in Fatehpur and Chandauli districts, Uttar Pradesh State, India (n = 3,855). Our contextualized spatial approach included expert consultation determining criteria and definition for the identification of clusters using Density Based Spatial Clustering Algorithm with Noise, followed by creating cluster maps considering natural boundaries and the local context. We compared this approach with the commonly used Anselin Local Moran's I statistic to identify high-risk villages. In the contextualized approach, 374 clusters were identified in Chandauli and 512 in Fatehpur. In total, 75% and 57% of all cases were captured by the identified clusters in Chandauli and Fatehpur, respectively. If 100 individuals per case were targeted for PEP, 33% and 11% of the total cluster population would receive PEP, respectively. In the statistical approach, more clusters in Chandauli and fewer clusters in Fatehpur (508 and 193) and lower proportions of cases in clusters (66% and 43%) were identified, and lower proportions of population targeted for PEP was calculated compared to the contextualized approach (11% and 11%). CONCLUSION: A contextualized spatial approach could identify clusters in high-endemic districts more precisely than a standard statistical approach. Therefore, it can be a useful alternative to detect preventive intervention targets in high-endemic areas.

Measuring endemicity and burden of leprosy across countries and regions: A systematic review and Delphi survey.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium leprae, the annual new case detection in 2019 was 202,189 globally. Measuring endemicity levels and burden in leprosy lacks a uniform approach. As a result, the assessment of leprosy endemicity or burden are not comparable over time and across countries and regions. This can make program planning and evaluation difficult. This study aims to identify relevant metrics and methods for measuring and classifying leprosy endemicity and burden at (sub)national level. METHODS: We used a mixed-method approach combining findings from a systematic literature review and a Delphi survey. The literature search was conducted in seven databases, searching for endemicity, burden and leprosy. We reviewed the available evidence on the usage of indicators, classification levels, and scoring methods to measure and classify endemicity and burden. A two round Delphi survey was conducted to ask experts to rank and weigh indicators, classification levels, and scoring methods. RESULTS: The literature review showed variation of indicators, levels, and cut-off values to measure leprosy endemicity and/or burden. The most used indicators for endemicity include new case detection rate (NCDR), new cases among children and new cases with grade 2 disability. For burden these include NCDR, MB cases, and prevalence. The classification levels 'high' and 'low' were most important. It was considered most relevant to use separate scoring methods for endemicity and burden. The scores would be derived by use of multiple indicators. CONCLUSION: There is great variation in the existing method for measuring endemicity and burden across countries and regions. Our findings contribute to establishing a standardized uniform approach to measure and classify leprosy endemicity and burden at (sub)national level, which would allow effective communication and planning of intervention strategies.

The long-term impact of the Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of single dose rifampicin (SDR) to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. As the impact of the programme is difficult to establish in the short term, we apply mathematical modelling to predict its long-term impact on the leprosy incidence. METHODOLOGY: The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was calibrated and validated to the historic leprosy incidence data in the study areas. For each area, we assessed two scenarios: 1) continuation of existing routine activities as in 2014; and 2) routine activities combined with LPEP starting in 2015. The number of contacts per index patient screened varied from 1 to 36 between areas. Projections were made until 2040. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In all areas, the LPEP program increased the number of detected cases in the first year(s) of the programme as compared to the routine programme, followed by a faster reduction afterwards with increasing benefit over time. LPEP could accelerate the reduction of the leprosy incidence by up to six years as compared to the routine programme. The impact of LPEP varied by area due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient included and differences in leprosy epidemiology and routine control programme. CONCLUSIONS: The LPEP program contributes significantly to the reduction of the leprosy incidence and could potentially accelerate the interruption of transmission. It would be advisable to include contact tracing/screening and SDR in routine leprosy programmes.

Geospatial epidemiology of leprosy in northwest Bangladesh: a 20-year retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy is known to be unevenly distributed between and within countries. High risk areas or 'hotspots' are potential targets for preventive interventions, but the underlying epidemiologic mechanisms that enable hotspots to emerge, are not yet fully understood. In this study, we identified and characterized leprosy hotspots in Bangladesh, a country with one of the highest leprosy endemicity levels globally. METHODS: We used data from four high-endemic districts in northwest Bangladesh including 20 623 registered cases between January 2000 and April 2019 (among ~ 7 million population). Incidences per union (smallest administrative unit) were calculated using geospatial population density estimates. A geospatial Poisson model was used to detect incidence hotspots over three (overlapping) 10-year timeframes: 2000-2009, 2005-2014 and 2010-2019. Ordinal regression models were used to assess whether patient characteristics were significantly different for cases outside hotspots, as compared to cases within weak (i.e., relative risk (RR) of one to two), medium (i.e., RR of two to three), and strong (i.e., RR higher than three) hotspots. RESULTS: New case detection rates dropped from 44/100 000 in 2000 to 10/100 000 in 2019. Statistically significant hotspots were identified during all timeframes and were often located at areas with high population densities. The RR for leprosy was up to 12 times higher for inhabitants of hotspots than for people living outside hotspots. Within strong hotspots (1930 cases among less than 1% of the population), significantly more child cases (i.e., below 15 years of age) were detected, indicating recent transmission. Cases in hotspots were not significantly more likely to be detected actively. CONCLUSIONS: Leprosy showed a heterogeneous distribution with clear hotspots in northwest Bangladesh throughout a 20-year period of decreasing incidence. Findings confirm that leprosy hotspots represent areas of higher transmission activity and are not solely the result of active case finding strategies.

Number of people requiring post-exposure prophylaxis to end leprosy: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, around 210,000 new cases of leprosy are detected annually. To end leprosy, i.e. zero new leprosy cases, preventive interventions such as contact tracing and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) are required. This study aims to estimate the number of people requiring PEP to reduce leprosy new case detection (NCD) at national and global level by 50% and 90%. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The individual-based model SIMCOLEP was fitted to seven leprosy settings defined by NCD and MB proportion. Using data of all 110 countries with known leprosy patients in 2016, we assigned each country to one of these settings. We predicted the impact of administering PEP to about 25 contacts of leprosy patients on the annual NCD for 25 years and estimated the number of contacts requiring PEP per country for each year. The NCD trends show an increase in NCD in the first year (i.e. backlog cases) followed by a significant decrease thereafter. A reduction of 50% and 90% of new cases would be achieved in most countries in 5 and 22 years if 20.6 and 40.2 million people are treated with PEP over that period, respectively. For India, Brazil, and Indonesia together, a total of 32.9 million people requiring PEP to achieve a 90% reduction in 22 years. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The leprosy problem is far greater than the 210,000 new cases reported annually. Our model estimates of the number of people requiring PEP to achieve significant reduction of new leprosy cases can be used by policymakers and program managers to develop long-term strategies to end leprosy.

Leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis with single-dose rifampicin (LPEP): an international feasibility programme.

BACKGROUND: Innovative approaches are required for leprosy control to reduce cases and curb transmission of Mycobacterium leprae. Early case detection, contact screening, and chemoprophylaxis are the most promising tools. We aimed to generate evidence on the feasibility of integrating contact tracing and administration of single-dose rifampicin (SDR) into routine leprosy control activities. METHODS: The leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis (LPEP) programme was an international, multicentre feasibility study implemented within the leprosy control programmes of Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania. LPEP explored the feasibility of combining three key interventions: systematically tracing contacts of individuals newly diagnosed with leprosy; screening the traced contacts for leprosy; and administering SDR to eligible contacts. Outcomes were assessed in terms of number of contacts traced, screened, and SDR administration rates. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2015, and Aug 1, 2019, LPEP enrolled 9170 index patients and listed 179 769 contacts, of whom 174 782 (97·2%) were successfully traced and screened. Of those screened, 22 854 (13·1%) were excluded from SDR mainly because of health reasons and age. Among those excluded, 810 were confirmed as new patients (46 per 10 000 contacts screened). Among the eligible screened contacts, 1182 (0·7%) refused prophylactic treatment with SDR. Overall, SDR was administered to 151 928 (86·9%) screened contacts. No serious adverse events were reported. INTERPRETATION: Post-exposure prophylaxis with SDR is safe; can be integrated into different leprosy control programmes with minimal additional efforts once contact tracing has been established; and is generally well accepted by index patients, their contacts, and health-care workers. The programme has also invigorated local leprosy control through the availability of a prophylactic intervention; therefore, we recommend rolling out SDR in all settings where contact tracing and screening have been established. FUNDING: Novartis Foundation.

Leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis with single-dose rifampicin (LPEP): an international feasibility programme

Background: Innovative approaches are required for leprosy control to reduce cases and curb transmission of Mycobacterium leprae. Early case detection, contact screening, and chemoprophylaxis are the most promising tools. We aimed to generate evidence on the feasibility of integrating contact tracing and administration of single-dose rifampicin (SDR) into routine leprosy control activities. Methods The leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis (LPEP) programme was an international, multicentre feasibility study implemented within the leprosy control programmes of Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Tanzania. LPEP explored the feasibility of combining three key interventions: systematically tracing contacts of individuals newly diagnosed with leprosy; screening the traced contacts for leprosy; and administering SDR to eligible contacts. Outcomes were assessed in terms of number of contacts traced, screened, and SDR administration rates. Findings Between Jan 1, 2015, and Aug 1, 2019, LPEP enrolled 9170 index patients and listed 179 769 contacts, of whom 174782 (97·2%) were successfully traced and screened. Of those screened, 22 854 (13·1%) were excluded from SDR mainly because of health reasons and age. Among those excluded, 810 were confirmed as new patients (46 per 10 000 contacts screened). Among the eligible screened contacts, 1182 (0·7%) refused prophylactic treatment with SDR. Overall, SDR was administered to 151 928 (86·9%) screened contacts. No serious adverse events were reported. Interpretation Post-exposure prophylaxis with SDR is safe; can be integrated into different leprosy control programmes with minimal additional efforts once contact tracing has been established; and is generally well accepted by index patients, their contacts, and health-care workers. The programme has also invigorated local leprosy control through the availability of a prophylactic intervention; therefore, we recommend rolling out SDR in all settings where contact tracing and screening have been established(AU).

The long-term impact of the leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis (LPEP) program on leprosy incidence: a modelling study

The Leprosy Post-Exposure Prophylaxis (LPEP) program explored the feasibility and impact of contact tracing and the provision of SDR to eligible contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients in states or districts of Brazil, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Tanzania. This study investigated the long-term impact of the LPEP program on the leprosy new case detection rate (NCDR). Our results show that LPEP could reduce the NCDR beyond the impact of the routine leprosy control programme and that many new cases could be prevented. The benefit of LPEP increases gradually over time. LPEP could accelerate the time of reaching predicted NCDR levels of 2040 under routine program by up to six years. Furthermore, we highlighted how the impact varies between countries due to differences in the number of contacts per index patient screened and differences in leprosy epidemiology and national control programme. Generally, including both household contacts and neighbours (> 20 contacts per index patient) would yield the highest impact.

Leprosy post-exposure prophylaxis in the Indian health system: A cost-effectiveness analysis.

India has the highest burden of leprosy in the world. Following a recent WHO guideline, the Indian National Leprosy Programme is introducing post-exposure prophylaxis with single-dose rifampicin (SDR-PEP) in all high-endemic districts of the country. The aim of this study is to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness of SDR-PEP in different leprosy disability burden situations. We used a stochastic individual-based model (SIMCOLEP) to simulate the leprosy new case detection rate trend and the impact of implementing contact screening and SDR-PEP from 2016 to 2040 (25 years) in the Union Territory of Dadra Nagar Haveli (DNH) in India. Effects of the intervention were expressed as disability adjusted life years (DALY) averted under three assumption of disability prevention: 1) all grade 1 disability (G1D) cases prevented; 2) G1D cases prevented in PB cases only; 3) no disability prevented. Costs were US$ 2.9 per contact. Costs and effects were discounted at 3%. The incremental cost per DALY averted by SDR-PEP was US$ 210, US$ 447, and US$ 5,673 in the 25th year under assumption 1, 2, and 3, respectively. If prevention of G1D was assumed, the probability of cost-effectiveness was 1.0 at the threshold of US$ 2,000, which is equivalent to the GDP per capita of India. The probability of cost-effectiveness was 0.6, if no disability prevention was assumed. The cost per new leprosy case averted was US$ 2,873. Contact listing, screening and the provision of SDR-PEP is a cost-effective strategy in leprosy control in both the short (5 years) and long term (25 years). The cost-effectiveness depends on the extent to which disability can be prevented. As the intervention becomes increasingly cost-effective in the long term, we recommend a long-term commitment for its implementation.

Predicting the impact of household contact and mass chemoprophylaxis on future new leprosy cases in South Tarawa, Kiribati: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The country of Kiribati is a small Pacific island nation which had a new case detection rate of 191 per 100,000 in 2016, and is one of the few countries yet to reach the WHO leprosy elimination goal. Chemoprophylaxis of household contacts of new cases, or to the whole population in a highly endemic areas have been found to be effective in reducing new case rates. This study investigated the potential impact of different chemoprophylaxis strategies on future cases in South Tarawa, the main population centre of Kiribati. METHODOLOGY: The microsimulation model SIMCOLEP was calibrated to simulate the South Tarawa population and past leprosy control activities, and replicate annual new cases from 1989 to 2016. The impact of six different strategies for delivering one round of single dose rifampicin (SDR) chemoprophylaxis to household contacts of new cases and/or one or three rounds of SDR to the whole population was modelled from 2017 to 2030. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our model predicted that continuing the existing control program of high levels of public awareness, passive case detection, and treatment with multidrug treatment would lead to a substantial reduction in cases but this was less effective than all modelled intervention scenarios. Mass chemoprophylaxis led to a faster initial decline in cases than household contact chemoprophylaxis alone, however the decline under the latter was sustained for longer. The greatest cumulative impact was for household contact chemoprophylaxis with three rounds of mass chemoprophylaxis at one-year intervals. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that control of leprosy would be achieved most rapidly with a combination of intensive population-based and household chemoprophylaxis. These findings may be generalisable to other countries where crowding places social contacts as well as household contacts of cases at risk of developing leprosy.

Leprosy services in primary health care in India: comparative economic cost analysis of two public-health settings.

OBJECTIVES: The WHO recommends inclusion of post-exposure chemoprophylaxis with single-dose rifampicin in national leprosy control programmes. The objective was to estimate the cost of leprosy services at primary care level in two different public-health settings. METHODS: Ingredient-based costing was performed in eight primary health centres (PHCs) purposively selected in the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli (DNH) and the Umbergaon block of Valsad district, Gujarat, India. All costs were bootstrapped, and to estimate the variation in total cost under uncertainty, a univariate sensitivity analysis was performed. RESULTS: The mean annual cost of providing leprosy services was USD 29 072 in the DNH PHC (95% CI: 22 125-36 020) and USD 11 082 in Umbergaon (95% CI: 8334-13 830). The single largest cost component was human resources: 79% in DNH and 83% in Umbergaon. The unit cost for screening the contact of a leprosy patient was USD 1 in DNH (95% CI: 0.8-1.2) and USD 0.3 in Umbergaon (95% CI: 0.2-0.4). In DNH, the unit cost of delivering single-dose of rifampicin (SDR) as chemoprophylaxis for contacts was USD 2.9 (95% CI: 2.5-3.7). CONCLUSIONS: The setting with an enhanced public-health financing system invests more in leprosy services than a setting with fewer financial resources. In terms of leprosy visits, the enhanced public-health system is hardly more expensive than the non-enhanced public-health system. The unit cost of contact screening is not high, favouring its sustainability in the programme.

Policy Lessons From Quantitative Modeling of Leprosy.

Recent mathematical and statistical modeling of leprosy incidence data provides estimates of the current undiagnosed population and projections of diagnosed cases, as well as ongoing transmission. Furthermore, modeling studies have been used to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed intervention strategies, such as postleprosy exposure prophylaxis and novel diagnostics, relative to current approaches. Such modeling studies have revealed both a slow decline of new cases and a substantial pool of undiagnosed infections. These findings highlight the need for active case detection, particularly targeting leprosy foci, as well as for continued research into innovative accurate, rapid, and cost-effective diagnostics. As leprosy incidence continues to decline, targeted active case detection primarily in foci and connected areas will likely become increasingly important.

Minimum requirements and optimal testing strategies of a diagnostic test for leprosy as a tool towards zero transmission: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: The availability of a diagnostic test to detect subclinical leprosy cases is crucial to interrupt the transmission of M. leprae. In this study we assessed the minimum sensitivity level of such a (hypothetical) diagnostic test and the optimal testing strategy in order to effectively reduce the new case detection rate (NCDR) of leprosy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the individual-based model SIMCOLEP, and based it on previous quantification using COLEP data, a cohort study of leprosy cases in Bangladesh. The baseline consisted of treatment with Multidrug therapy of clinically diagnosed leprosy cases, passive case detection and household contact tracing. We examined the use of a leprosy diagnostic test for subclinical leprosy in four strategies: testing in 1) household contacts, 2) household contacts with a 3-year follow-up, 3) a population survey with coverage 50%, and 4) a population survey (100%). For each strategy, we varied the test sensitivity between 50% and 100%. All analyses were conducted for a high, medium, and low (i.e. 25, 5 and 1 per 100,000) endemic setting over a period of 50 years. In all strategies, the use of a diagnostic test further reduces the NCDR of leprosy compared to the no test strategy. A substantial reduction could already be achieved at a test sensitivity as low as 50%. In a high endemic setting, a NCDR of 10 per 100,000 could be reached within 8-10 years in household contact testing, and 2-6 years in a population testing. Testing in a population survey could also yield the highest number of prevented new cases, but requires a large number needed to test and treat. In contrast, household contact testing has a smaller impact on the NCDR but requires a substantially lower number needed to test and treat. CONCLUSIONS: A diagnostic test for subclinical leprosy with a sensitivity of at least 50% could substantially reduce M. leprae transmission. To effectively reduce NCDR in the short run, a population survey is preferred over household contact tracing. However, this is only favorable in high endemic settings.

Forecasting the new case detection rate of leprosy in four states of Brazil: A comparison of modelling approaches.

BACKGROUND: Brazil has the second highest annual number of new leprosy cases. The aim of this study is to formally compare predictions of future new case detection rate (NCDR) trends and the annual probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 of four different modelling approaches in four states of Brazil: Rio Grande do Norte, Amazonas, Ceará, Tocantins. METHODS: A linear mixed model, a back-calculation approach, a deterministic compartmental model and an individual-based model were used. All models were fitted to leprosy data obtained from the Brazilian national database (SINAN). First, models were fitted to the data up to 2011, and predictions were made for NCDR for 2012-2014. Second, data up to 2014 were considered and forecasts of NCDR were generated for each year from 2015 to 2040. The resulting distributions of NCDR and the probability of NCDR being below 10/100,000 of the population for each year were then compared between approaches. RESULTS: Each model performed well in model fitting and the short-term forecasting of future NCDR. Long-term forecasting of NCDR and the probability of NCDR falling below 10/100,000 differed between models. All agree that the trend of NCDR will continue to decrease in all states until 2040. Reaching a NCDR of less than 10/100,000 by 2020 was only likely in Rio Grande do Norte. Prediction until 2040 showed that the target was also achieved in Amazonas, while in Ceará and Tocantins the NCDR most likely remain (far) above 10/100,000. CONCLUSIONS: All models agree that, while incidence is likely to decline, achieving a NCDR below 10/100,000 by 2020 is unlikely in some states. Long-term prediction showed a downward trend with more variation between models, but highlights the need for further control measures to reduce the incidence of new infections if leprosy is to be eliminated.

Leprosy New Case Detection Trends and the Future Effect of Preventive Interventions in Pará State, Brazil: A Modelling Study.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy remains a public health problem in Brazil. Although the overall number of new cases is declining, there are still areas with a high disease burden, such as Pará State in the north of the country. We aim to predict future trends in new case detection rate (NCDR) and explore the potential impact of contact tracing and chemoprophylaxis on NCDR in Pará State. METHODS: We used SIMCOLEP, an existing individual-based model for the transmission and control of M. leprae, in a population structured by households. The model was quantified to simulate the population and observed NCDR of leprosy in Pará State for the period 1990 to 2014. The baseline scenario was the current control program, consisting of multidrug therapy, passive case detection, and active case detection from 2003 onwards. Future projections of the NCDR were made until 2050 given the continuation of the current control program (i.e. baseline). We further investigated the potential impact of two scenarios for future control of leprosy: 1) discontinuation of contact tracing; and 2) continuation of current control in combination with chemoprophylaxis. Both scenarios started in 2015 and were projected until 2050. RESULTS: The modelled NCDR in Pará State after 2014 shows a continuous downward trend, reaching the official elimination target of 10 cases per 100,000 population by 2030. The cessation of systematic contact tracing would not result in a higher NCDR in the long run. Systematic contact tracing in combination with chemoprophylaxis for contacts would reduce the NCDR by 40% and bring attainment of the elimination target two years forward to 2028. CONCLUSION: The NCDR of leprosy continues to decrease in Pará State. Elimination of leprosy as a public health problem could possibly be achieved around 2030, if the current control program is maintained. Providing chemoprophylaxis would decrease the NCDR further and would bring elimination forward by two years.

Concerted Efforts to Control or Eliminate Neglected Tropical Diseases: How Much Health Will Be Gained?

BACKGROUND: The London Declaration (2012) was formulated to support and focus the control and elimination of ten neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), with targets for 2020 as formulated by the WHO Roadmap. Five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths and trachoma) are to be controlled by preventive chemotherapy (PCT), and four (Chagas' disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis) by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). Guinea worm, virtually eradicated, is not considered here. We aim to estimate the global health impact of meeting these targets in terms of averted morbidity, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study provides prevalence and burden estimates for all nine NTDs in 1990 and 2010, by country, age and sex, which were taken as the basis for our calculations. Estimates for other years were obtained by interpolating between 1990 (or the start-year of large-scale control efforts) and 2010, and further extrapolating until 2030, such that the 2020 targets were met. The NTD disease manifestations considered in the GBD study were analyzed as either reversible or irreversible. Health impacts were assessed by comparing the results of achieving the targets with the counterfactual, construed as the health burden had the 1990 (or 2010 if higher) situation continued unabated. PRINCIPLE FINDINGS/CONCLUSIONS: Our calculations show that meeting the targets will lead to about 600 million averted DALYs in the period 2011-2030, nearly equally distributed between PCT and IDM-NTDs, with the health gain amongst PCT-NTDs mostly (96%) due to averted disability and amongst IDM-NTDs largely (95%) from averted mortality. These health gains include about 150 million averted irreversible disease manifestations (e.g. blindness) and 5 million averted deaths. Control of soil-transmitted helminths accounts for one third of all averted DALYs. We conclude that the projected health impact of the London Declaration justifies the required efforts.